More coffee roasters are opening every year: What does this mean for traders?

The specialty coffee industry is growing fast. The number of roasters, from small micro roasters to large commercial operations, has risen sharply over the past decade, driven by consumers seeking higher-quality coffee.

This shift is most visible in regions not traditionally associated with specialty coffee culture. Eastern Europe is a clear example. Between 2013 and 2021, the number of specialty coffee shops and roasteries in Romania alone grew from roughly three to more than 120. 

Meanwhile, market growth in the Middle East is explosive. Data from Project Café Middle East 2025 indicates that the region’s branded coffee shop sector has surpassed 11,160 outlets, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 46% of those locations.

The increase in the number of specialty coffee roasters has created a paradox for green coffee traders. “Coffee traders, like all actors in the supply chain, are under pressure due to elevated costs in logistics, financing, and compliance,” says Eileen Gordon Laity, the Secretary General at the European Coffee Federation. “However, a growing base of roasters can provide traders with a more diversified and resilient customer portfolio.”

While more roasters expand the potential customer base for green coffee importers and exporters, they also intensify competition, squeeze margins, and force a complete rethink of the traditional trading model.

A double-edged sword for coffee roasters

The increasing number of roasters worldwide is a positive development for the coffee industry, signalling strong growth as specialty coffee consumption rises. More competition also tends to drive down prices, raise quality, and push businesses to be more efficient. Ultimately, consumers have more choice and better value. 

“I believe what really creates a healthy market is a discriminating pool of consumers. And in the case of higher quality markets like specialty coffee, I think this holds even more true,” says Jim Cleaves, a coffee consultant with over 40 years’ experience working for large players like Dunkin.

Yet the challenge for newer roasters, especially, is standing out in an increasingly crowded space. “Some new roasters may indeed face challenges entering the market, especially when capital and economies of scale are limited,” says Eileen. “However, many small roasters thrive by offering niche, value-added products, engaging directly with consumers, and building strong brand loyalty.”

Differentiation alone, however, doesn’t resolve a more immediate problem: the cost of running a roastery is climbing. Labour, energy, and logistics costs have all risen, and coffee prices still remain above a five-year average.

For roasters, this is not a favourable environment for scaling. New entrants, in particular, face the double pressure of high input costs and limited purchasing power.

Traders feel the squeeze too

The growing number of roasters creates more potential customers for traders, which, in theory, should be another positive development. 

In practice, however, traders are navigating their own cost pressures, which makes scaling volumes difficult. 

After arabica prices peaked at US$4.41/lb in February 2025, coffee traders, particularly small and medium-sized operations, faced unprecedented pressure and uncertainty. Sweeping US tariffs, as high as 50% on Brazil, added even more financial strain.

And on the producer side, there is a growing reluctance to commit. When prices are rising, holding onto stock becomes a rational strategy. In 2021, according to a report by Euronews, coffee prices soared by 55%, prompting Colombian farmers to default on previously agreed sales to resell at higher prices.

A shrinking pool of coffee traders

Over the past decade, consolidation has reshaped the trading side of the coffee industry. The pool of traders available to roasters is, as a result, getting smaller.

Smaller traders have been absorbed by larger companies, which can then build their own specialty divisions at a fraction of the cost of setting them up from scratch.

Nordic Approach followed this path. Its sourcing arm, Tropiq, originally supplied micro roasteries in small volumes before shifting to larger-scale operations. In 2023, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe acquired a majority stake in the business. 

“With the acquisition of the majority of shares in Nordic Approach and Tropiq,” said NKG Group CEO David M. Neumann in a press release, “we are confident that we are now in an ideal position to expand our specialty business not just in Scandinavia, but across Europe, Asia and the Middle East.”

The same consolidation has happened among roasters. In 2015, Peet’s Coffee acquired Intelligentsia and Stumptown; in 2017, Nestlé acquired a 70% stake in Blue Bottle Coffee. Lavazza, meanwhile, bought Carte Noire, Kicking Horse, and Maxicoffee.

Fewer independent traders, combined with a growing number of roasters competing for their services, could create a structural imbalance. It concentrates market power, reduces supply chain diversity, and raises questions about how profits are distributed. 

That said, Eileen offers a more nuanced view: “Larger trading companies may have the infrastructure to better support compliance with evolving regulatory demands, such as traceability and due diligence requirements, which benefits smaller roasters that may lack those capacities internally. 

“The goal is not simply how profit is allocated; what really matters is that everyone involved has a business that works, so they can reinvest in quality, sustainability, and innovation.”

Is direct trade a solution?

With fewer traders to work with and margins under pressure, some roasters are looking at direct trade as an alternative. The appeal is understandable: working directly with producers offers more control over your supply chain and, in principle, greater transparency.

But the reality is more complicated. 

“Direct trade means so many things to so many different roasters and consumers,” says Jim. His view is that when roasters do engage in direct trade, they tend to develop a clearer understanding of the expertise and risk that exporters and importers normally absorb on their behalf.

“It can foster close producer-roaster relationships, transparency, and mutual commitment to quality. However, it also entails logistical, legal, and financial complexities, particularly around sourcing consistency, risk management, compliance with EU regulations, and shipping constraints,” Eileen explains. “Not all producers have the resources to manage direct trade relationships, nor do all roasters have the infrastructure to engage at origin.”

The growing number of roasters is, therefore, not simply a story about competition or margin compression. It reflects a deeper shift in how risk and value move through the supply chain. 

“The global coffee landscape is evolving rapidly,” Eileen concludes. “This evolution can be a strength, not a threat.”

But whether it becomes one depends on how traders, roasters, and producers alike choose to respond, especially as operational costs continue to climb.