Global Coffee Production Forecast to Reach Record 180 Million Bags, Prices Under Pressure
Global coffee supply is set to reach an all-time high in the 2026/2027 season, primarily due to improved Brazilian Arabica production. While ample supply and softer European demand weigh on prices, the U.S. market remains relatively stable. Analysts see potential short-term price recovery despite ongoing market volatility.
Global coffee production is projected to reach 180 million 60-kg bags in the 2026/2027 season starting this October. The figure would mark the largest annual supply on record, according to a report released Wednesday (February 25, 2026) by Dutch bank Rabobank.
Citing Reuters, the production surge is primarily driven by higher Arabica output in Brazil following favorable weather conditions.
The abundant supply, combined with steady inflows of coffee into ICE-certified warehouses, has been cited as a key factor pressuring prices and fueling the current bearish market trend.
However, Rabobank noted that investment fund selling has exacerbated the price decline excessively. The bank sees potential for a short-term price recovery.
Demand Weakens in Europe
On the demand side, Rabobank projects coffee consumption to decline by 2.9% in Europe and across 24 non-producing countries in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, the United States market shows relatively stronger resilience. Coffee consumption volume in the U.S. fell only 0.9% throughout 2025, despite retail prices rising by 11.1%.
With record supply and weakening demand in several regions, global coffee price dynamics in the coming months are expected to remain volatile.
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